# GET /api/mcp/data/expected-move/{ticker}

> How much does the market expect NVDA to move by the next expiration?

Returns the expected move to the chosen expiration from the ATM straddle, as dollars and percent of spot, with the upper and lower bounds and the days to expiry.

- **Family:** Earnings and expected move (https://apexvol.com/developers/earnings-expected-move-api)
- **Plan:** Premium and above. Every call needs `Authorization: Bearer avmcp_<token>`; tokens are issued to paid and trial accounts under Account, then API Access.
- **Units:** expected_move_dollars and the bounds in dollars; expected_move_percent in percent.
- **Basis:** ATM straddle price (call plus put) at the strike nearest spot. Skips a same-day expiry unless asked.
- **MCP tools:** `calculate_expected_move`
- **Background:** https://apexvol.com/learn/earnings-trading-guide

## Parameters

| Name | In | Default | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `ticker` (required) | path |  | any covered symbol | The underlying, upper case. Use /search to check coverage. |
| `expiration` | query | nearest | YYYY-MM-DD, a listed expiration | Which expiration to use. Defaults to the nearest one. |

## Request

```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer avmcp_YOUR_TOKEN" \
     "https://apexvol.com/api/mcp/data/expected-move/NVDA"
```

## Response (captured 2026-09-08)

Real response, lists cut to the rows nearest the money. The envelope is `{"success": true, "data": ...}`.

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "data": {
    "dte": 1,
    "expected_move_dollars": 5.58,
    "expected_move_percent": 2.42,
    "expiration": "2026-09-09",
    "lower_bound": 224.73,
    "stock_price": 230.3,
    "ticker": "NVDA",
    "upper_bound": 235.88
  }
}
```

## Fields

- `expected_move_dollars, expected_move_percent`: The move.
- `upper_bound, lower_bound`: Spot plus and minus the move.
- `expiration, dte, stock_price`: Context.

## Errors

- `401`: no or revoked token
- `429`: Retry-After seconds
- `403`: Premium plan required
- `424`: data feed unavailable, retry
- Full list: https://apexvol.com/developers/errors

## Ask it in an MCP client

- What is the expected move for NVDA by Friday?
- How much move is priced into AAPL for the October expiration?
- Give me the one-week expected move on SPY in dollars.

Conventions for units, bases and timestamps: https://apexvol.com/developers/conventions