# GET /api/mcp/data/expected-vs-actual/{ticker}

> Is the move priced into NVDA bigger or smaller than the stock usually makes?

Returns the expected move to the nearest expiration, the historical average move over the same number of days, the difference and a fair-priced assessment.

- **Family:** Earnings and expected move (https://apexvol.com/developers/earnings-expected-move-api)
- **Plan:** Pro and above. Every call needs `Authorization: Bearer avmcp_<token>`; tokens are issued to paid and trial accounts under Account, then API Access.
- **Units:** Moves in percent; straddle_price in dollars.
- **Basis:** Historical average is the mean absolute move over days_to_expiration trading days.
- **MCP tools:** `get_earnings_move_analysis`
- **Background:** https://apexvol.com/learn/earnings-trading-guide

## Parameters

| Name | In | Default | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `ticker` (required) | path |  | any covered symbol | The underlying, upper case. Use /search to check coverage. |

## Request

```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer avmcp_YOUR_TOKEN" \
     "https://apexvol.com/api/mcp/data/expected-vs-actual/NVDA"
```

## Response (captured 2026-09-08)

Real response, lists cut to the rows nearest the money. The envelope is `{"success": true, "data": ...}`.

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "data": {
    "assessment": "FAIRLY_PRICED",
    "days_to_expiration": 8,
    "difference_pct": 1.9203,
    "expected_move_pct": 4.5484,
    "expiration": "2026-09-16",
    "historical_avg_move_pct": 4.4627,
    "straddle_price": 10.475,
    "success": true,
    "ticker": "NVDA",
    "timestamp": "2026-09-08T08:07:31.458555"
  }
}
```

## Fields

- `expected_move_pct, historical_avg_move_pct, difference_pct`: The comparison.
- `assessment`: OVERPRICED, UNDERPRICED or FAIRLY_PRICED.
- `expiration, days_to_expiration, straddle_price`: Context.

## Errors

- `401`: no or revoked token
- `429`: Retry-After seconds
- `403`: Pro plan required
- `424`: data feed unavailable, retry
- Full list: https://apexvol.com/developers/errors

## Ask it in an MCP client

- Is the move priced into NVDA bigger than it usually makes?
- Are AAPL options overpricing the next two weeks?
- Compare expected to actual moves for SPY.

Conventions for units, bases and timestamps: https://apexvol.com/developers/conventions