# POST /api/mcp/data/pop

> What is the probability of profit on these legs?

Given legs with IV and premium, the spot and days to expiry, returns the probability the position finishes profitable.

- **Family:** Strategies (https://apexvol.com/developers/strategies-api)
- **Plan:** Basic and above. Every call needs `Authorization: Bearer avmcp_<token>`; tokens are issued to paid and trial accounts under Account, then API Access.
- **Units:** probability_of_profit in percent.
- **Basis:** N(d2)-style probability at expiration from the supplied IVs.
- **MCP tools:** `calculate_probability_of_profit`
- **Background:** https://apexvol.com/learn/options-risk-management

## Parameters

| Name | In | Default | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `legs` (required) | body |  | array of {option_type, action, strike, iv, premium, quantity} | The legs. |
| `stock_price` (required) | body |  | dollars | Spot. |
| `days_to_exp` (required) | body |  | days | Days to expiration. |

## Request

```bash
curl -X POST "https://apexvol.com/api/mcp/data/pop" \
     -H "Authorization: Bearer avmcp_YOUR_TOKEN" \
     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
     -d '{"legs": [{"option_type": "PUT", "action": "SELL", "strike": 755.0, "premium": 6.359999999999999, "quantity": 1, "iv": 0.1365}, {"option_type": "PUT", "action": "BUY", "strike": 750.0, "premium": 5.35, "quantity": 1, "iv": 0.1416}, {"option_type": "CALL", "action": "SELL", "strike": 785.0, "premium": 4.785, "quantity": 1, "iv": 0.1084}, {"option_type": "CALL", "action": "BUY", "strike": 790.0, "premium": 3.275, "quantity": 1, "iv": 0.1062}], "stock_price": 770.25, "days_to_exp": 30}'
```

## Response (captured 2026-09-08)

Real response, lists cut to the rows nearest the money. The envelope is `{"success": true, "data": ...}`.

```json
{
  "success": true,
  "data": {
    "legs_count": 4,
    "probability_of_profit": 41.7
  }
}
```

## Fields

- `probability_of_profit`: Percent.
- `legs_count`: How many legs were read.

## Errors

- `401`: no or revoked token
- `429`: Retry-After seconds
- `400`: missing or malformed body
- Full list: https://apexvol.com/developers/errors

## Ask it in an MCP client

- What is the probability of profit on this SPY iron condor?
- How likely is my NVDA put spread to expire profitable?
- Compute POP for a 16-delta strangle on AAPL.

Conventions for units, bases and timestamps: https://apexvol.com/developers/conventions