Apple (AAPL) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Options Strategies for January 29

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is set to report fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on January 29, 2026 after market close. As the world's most valuable company, Apple earnings consistently generate significant options activity and volatility. Here's what options traders need to know heading into the report.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street analysts are expecting Apple to report:

• Revenue: Approximately $124-126 billion
• EPS: Estimated around $2.35-$2.45
• Focus Areas: iPhone 16 sales, Services growth, China performance, AI initiatives

The holiday quarter is typically Apple's strongest, driven by iPhone sales during the gift-giving season. Investors will be closely watching commentary on Apple Intelligence adoption and any guidance on the company's AI roadmap.

Implied Volatility Analysis

Options markets are pricing in elevated volatility ahead of the report. Key observations:

• IV Rank: Typically spikes to 60-80th percentile pre-earnings
• Term Structure: Expect backwardation with near-term expirations showing higher IV
• Expected Move: Markets typically price a 3-5% move for AAPL earnings

Historically, Apple has moved within the expected range about 70% of the time, making premium selling strategies statistically favorable over the long run.

Options Strategies to Consider

For Premium Sellers (Neutral/Slight Bullish)

Iron Condor or Iron Butterfly: With IV elevated, selling premium around the expected move can capture the volatility crush post-earnings. Consider:

• Selling the at-the-money straddle if you expect AAPL to stay range-bound
• Iron condor with wings at 1.5x the expected move for defined risk
• Timing: Enter 1-2 days before earnings to capture peak IV

For Directional Traders

Debit Spreads: If you have a directional bias, vertical spreads reduce the impact of IV crush:

• Bull call spread if expecting positive reaction to iPhone/Services numbers
• Bear put spread if concerned about China headwinds or guidance
• Keep spreads tight (5-10 points) to maximize leverage

Post-Earnings Play

Calendar Spreads: After the IV crush, consider calendar spreads to benefit from the term structure normalizing. Sell the front-week options and buy further-dated contracts.

Key Levels to Watch

From a technical and options flow perspective:

• Gamma Exposure (GEX): Watch for significant call/put walls that may act as support/resistance
• Max Pain: Check where the max pain strike sits for the weekly expiration
• Round Numbers: $200, $210, $220 strikes typically see heavy positioning

Risk Management

Earnings trades carry binary risk. Key considerations:

• Size positions appropriately - earnings trades should be smaller than typical positions
• Define your max loss before entering
• Consider the risk/reward of the expected move vs. actual historical moves
• Have an exit plan regardless of direction

Bottom Line

Apple's January 29 earnings report presents opportunities for options traders across strategies. Premium sellers can capitalize on elevated IV, while directional traders should use spreads to mitigate volatility crush. As always, size appropriately and manage risk - even the most predictable companies can surprise.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.