Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for any stock based on current implied volatility. Essential for iron condors, straddles, and strangles.
What is Expected Move Calculator?
Expected Move Calculator is a tool that predicts the likely price range for a stock by option expiration, calculated using implied volatility to determine 1 standard deviation moves.
Expected move helps traders set strike prices for spreads and determine if option premiums are fairly priced relative to expected volatility.
How the Expected Move Calculator Works
The expected move is the one-standard-deviation price range the options market is pricing in by expiration: Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365), where IV is implied volatility (as a decimal) and DTE is days to expiration.
Example: a $100 stock with 30% implied volatility and 30 days to expiration: Expected Move = $100 × 0.30 × √(30/365) = $100 × 0.30 × 0.2868 = $8.60. That puts the 1-standard-deviation range at roughly $91.40 to $108.60 — statistically about a 68% chance the stock closes inside that band, and a 95% chance it closes within 2 standard deviations ($17.20, or $82.80 to $117.20).
Expected move is useful for setting strangle and iron condor strikes outside the range the market expects, and for judging whether an earnings-implied move (read off the front-month straddle) looks rich or cheap relative to the stock's normal volatility.
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Related Options Strategies
Iron Condor Strategy
Use expected move to set optimal strike prices.
Straddle Strategy
Determine if straddle cost is less than expected move.
Understanding related strategies helps you choose the best approach for your market outlook and risk tolerance. Each strategy has unique characteristics that make it suitable for different market conditions.
Go deeper on Earnings & Event Trading
The guides, comparisons and screens that sit behind this calculator.