ApexVol Terminal
Options analytics, live.
Chains, IV rank, expected move and dealer positioning for 5,500+ US stocks and ETFs.
Free on AAPL, no account. Trial: no charge if you cancel before it ends.
On this page
What is Expected Move?
Expected Move Expected move is the options-implied projection of how much an underlying stock or index is expected to move (in either direction) by a specific date. The quickest read is the at-the-money straddle: **Expected move ≈ ATM straddle price** The straddle prices the average move, up or down. That is not the same as one standard deviation: for a normal distribution the average move is about 0.8 standard deviations, so **one standard deviation ≈ ATM straddle × 1.25**. The one-standard-deviation range is the one with roughly a 68% probability of containing the price at expiration. For earnings events, the expected move is the single most-watched options statistic. Pre-earnings expected moves for major mega-caps typically run 4-7% (AAPL ~4%, NVDA ~7%, TSLA ~7-9%). If the actual move exceeds the expected move, long straddle buyers win; if it falls short, straddle sellers win. Expected move applications across time frames: - **Earnings expected move**: pre-event premium pricing the binary outcome. Standard reference for earnings-related options trades. - **Weekly expected move**: useful for credit spread strike selection. Strikes outside the weekly one-standard-deviation range have roughly a 68% probability of finishing OTM. - **Monthly expected move**: longer-term range projection used for iron condor strike width sizing. The relationship between expected move and historical realized moves is the heart of vol mispricing analysis. If a stock has consistently realized smaller moves than its options imply (the typical case for equity indices), short-premium strategies have structural edge. If a stock consistently exceeds its expected moves (some biotech and crypto names), long-premium has the edge. Expected move is a probabilistic projection, not a guarantee. The 68% interval means roughly 1 in 3 outcomes will land outside the one-standard-deviation range. The 2-standard-deviation range (twice the 1-SD value) captures roughly 95% of outcomes. Tail events (3+ SD moves) happen more often than the lognormal distribution predicts, which is why selling premium has tail risk even when sized at the 1-SD level. Live expected moves for any liquid ticker are available on ApexVol's options chain analytics.
Complete definition
Expected move is the options-implied projection of how much an underlying stock or index is expected to move (in either direction) by a specific date. The quickest read is the at-the-money straddle: **Expected move ≈ ATM straddle price** The straddle prices the average move, up or down. That is not the same as one standard deviation: for a normal distribution the average move is about 0.8 standard deviations, so **one standard deviation ≈ ATM straddle × 1.25**. The one-standard-deviation range is the one with roughly a 68% probability of containing the price at expiration. For earnings events, the expected move is the single most-watched options statistic. Pre-earnings expected moves for major mega-caps typically run 4-7% (AAPL ~4%, NVDA ~7%, TSLA ~7-9%). If the actual move exceeds the expected move, long straddle buyers win; if it falls short, straddle sellers win. Expected move applications across time frames: - **Earnings expected move**: pre-event premium pricing the binary outcome. Standard reference for earnings-related options trades. - **Weekly expected move**: useful for credit spread strike selection. Strikes outside the weekly one-standard-deviation range have roughly a 68% probability of finishing OTM. - **Monthly expected move**: longer-term range projection used for iron condor strike width sizing. The relationship between expected move and historical realized moves is the heart of vol mispricing analysis. If a stock has consistently realized smaller moves than its options imply (the typical case for equity indices), short-premium strategies have structural edge. If a stock consistently exceeds its expected moves (some biotech and crypto names), long-premium has the edge. Expected move is a probabilistic projection, not a guarantee. The 68% interval means roughly 1 in 3 outcomes will land outside the one-standard-deviation range. The 2-standard-deviation range (twice the 1-SD value) captures roughly 95% of outcomes. Tail events (3+ SD moves) happen more often than the lognormal distribution predicts, which is why selling premium has tail risk even when sized at the 1-SD level. Live expected moves for any liquid ticker are available on ApexVol's options chain analytics.
Example
AAPL at $185 with 30-day ATM straddle priced at $7.20. Expected move ≈ $7.20. One standard deviation ≈ $7.20 × 1.25 = $9.00, so the market is implying roughly a 68% probability AAPL finishes between $176 and $194 in 30 days. The 2-SD range ($18.00) covers about 95% of outcomes.
Formula
Expected Move = Stock Price x IV x sqrt(DTE/365)Related terms
Watch
1:08
S&P 500 Slips 0.38% on a Hot Jobs Report: Sep 4Payrolls nearly tripled the forecast, the S&P 500 slipped 0.38% against a 55 point priced move and the VIX ticked up to 14.5. A one minute recap.
0:58
S&P 500 Up 1.06%, VIX Falls to 14.3: Sep 3 RecapThe S&P 500 closed up 1.06% against a 0.72% priced move and the VIX still fell to 14.3. A one minute recap of the day in volatility.
Taught in Volcademy
A free course in order, with questions you answer on the live market. See every module
ApexVol Terminal
Options analytics, live.
Chains, IV rank, expected move and dealer positioning for 5,500+ US stocks and ETFs.
- Live chains and Greeks
- IV rank and percentile
- Expected move and GEX
- Screener and strategy P&L
Free on AAPL, no account. Trial: no charge if you cancel before it ends.
Try this with real market data. 5,500+ stocks, live options chains, IV analytics and P&L. 7-day free trial.
Questions
About Expected Move.
How is expected move calculated?
The quickest estimate is the ATM straddle price, which is the average move the market is pricing. One standard deviation is about 1.25 × the straddle, or stock price × IV × √(days/365).
What does an expected move tell you?
It tells you the options-market-implied range for the underlying over a specific time period. The straddle gives the average move. With roughly 68% probability the underlying finishes within one standard deviation (about 1.25 × the straddle), and with about 95% probability within two.
How do I use expected move for trading?
For credit spreads, strikes outside the one-standard-deviation range have roughly a 68% probability of finishing OTM. For earnings, compare the implied expected move to the historical realized moves — if historical moves are smaller, sellers have edge; if larger, buyers have edge. For position sizing, use 2× expected move as the worst-case scenario reference.
Keep reading
Where this term
actually shows up.
Know the term.
Now see it priced.
Every definition here is something the Terminal shows you live on a real chain — the Greeks, the surface, the flow. Run it on AAPL without an account.
Real market data, not a sandbox. See it live on AAPL.