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Bloomberg-Grade Smile Shift Analysis

IV Shift

Live IV smile vs previous close vs model forecast, with expansion/compression bars by strike. See exactly where the surface is shifting — and whether the market agrees with the model.

8 min read Updated Pro tierML Forecast3 Heatmap ModesConfluence Scoring

No account needed to look at it on AAPL. Live market data on every plan, and you can cancel any time.

The screen

What the module
actually shows.

A real capture, not a mockup. Click it to enlarge, then open the same screen live on AAPL.

IV Shift, a module of the ApexVol Terminal.

ApexVol Terminal

Options analytics, live.

Chains, IV rank, expected move and dealer positioning for 5,500+ US stocks and ETFs.

Start 7-day free trial Open the Terminal

Free on AAPL, no account. Trial: no charge if you cancel before it ends.

On this page
  1. Every panel
  2. On the desk
  3. Ticker to decision
  4. When to reach for it
  5. Questions

What is IV Shift?

IV Shift IV Shift provides institutional-grade smile shift analysis comparing live IV against prior sessions, ML forecasts and 30-day envelopes to identify mispriced strikes and vol regime changes.

ApexVol Terminal

Options analytics, live.

Chains, IV rank, expected move and dealer positioning for 5,500+ US stocks and ETFs.

  • Live chains and Greeks
  • IV rank and percentile
  • Expected move and GEX
  • Screener and strategy P&L
Start 7-day free trial Open the Terminal

Free on AAPL, no account. Trial: no charge if you cancel before it ends.

Inside the module

Every panel,
and its job.

What the screen opens with, part by part.

Live vs Forecast

ML-predicted smile overlay with confidence bands

3 Heatmap Modes

Change, Richness (vs model) and Envelope Percentile

Rich Strikes Table

Ranked list of overpriced strikes by vol selling edge

Confluence Scoring

Combined multi-signal overlay for highest conviction

Why it matters

What this buys you
on the desk.

How traders read IV Shift when they are looking for an edge worth taking.

See Where the Smart Money Is Repricing

The smile shift shows you exactly which strikes saw IV expansion (institutional buying) and compression (selling) since the last session. These flows often precede directional moves.

Find Rich Strikes with ML Precision

The model forecast overlay shows what IV 'should' be at each strike. Strikes trading above the forecast are overpriced — the Rich Strikes table ranks them by vol selling edge.

Multiple Confirmation Signals

The confluence chart combines model richness, envelope percentile and shift direction into a single view. When all three align, the signal is highest conviction.

Compare to Any Historical Date

Compare today's smile against pre-earnings, pre-FOMC, 1 week ago or any custom date. See how the entire surface has evolved.

How it works

From a ticker
to a decision.

The order the screen expects you to work in.

  1. Select ticker

    Enter any US stock or ETF

  2. Review data

    Analyse the key metrics and charts

  3. Identify signal

    Find the actionable insight

  4. Execute

    Use the signal to inform your trade

Use cases

When you would
reach for it.

Systematic Vol Selling
Use the Rich Strikes table to find the highest-edge strikes for credit spreads — where IV exceeds the model by the widest margin.
Event Comparison
Compare today's smile to pre-earnings shape to see if the market is pricing a similar event premium.
Regime Detection
When the entire smile shifts higher vs the envelope, it signals a vol regime change — adjust your strategy mix from selling to buying.

Questions

What people ask
about this screen.

What is the model forecast?

An ML-predicted smooth volatility smile that represents what IV 'should' be at each strike based on the provider's proprietary model. Strikes trading above or below the forecast are potentially mispriced.

What are envelope percentiles?

The 30-day range of IV at each strike, shown as p5–p95 bands. An envelope percentile of 90 means current IV at that strike is higher than 90% of readings in the last 30 days.

You have read the screen.
Now run it.

IV Shift is one pane of the Terminal, and it opens on AAPL without an account. Every plan points the same module at the other 5,500 tickers.

Real market data, not a sandbox. Open IV Shift on AAPL.