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Earnings · Communication Services · Tue Jan 19, 2027
NFLX earnings expected move
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.1% (±$3.25) when Netflix Inc. reports on Tue Jan 19, 2027 after the close, so roughly $60.66 to $67.16.
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NFLX expected move
Refreshed every 15 minAs of 2026-10-27, options price a move of ±5.1% for NFLX's report on Tue Jan 19, 2027 after the close, 84 days away. Over its last 12 reports, NFLX moved 6.9% on average by the next close.
How the Oct 20 report went
NFLX moved -5.3% on the day after its Oct 20 report (-6.6% at the open). Options had priced ±9.9%, so the stock moved less than the options market expected.
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NFLX moves after the last 12 reports
Before each report, the at-the-money straddle priced a move. The bars show how far NFLX actually moved over the next session; the line on each bar is what options priced. The stock moved more than priced in 6 of 12 reports.
| Report | Straddle priced | Move at the open | Move by the close | Versus priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | ±9.9% | -6.6% | -5.3% | Moved less |
| 2026-07-16 | ±8.7% | -11.9% | -7.3% | Moved less |
| 2026-04-16 | ±7.2% | -10.6% | -9.7% | Moved more |
| 2026-01-20 | ±7.7% | -5.4% | -2.2% | Moved less |
| 2025-10-21 | ±7.3% | -7.9% | -10.1% | Moved more |
| 2025-07-17 | ±6.5% | -2.5% | -5.1% | Moved less |
| 2025-04-17 | ±9.4% | +1.2% | +1.5% | Moved less |
| 2025-01-21 | ±8.7% | +14.8% | +9.7% | Moved more |
| 2024-10-17 | ±7.7% | +7.3% | +11.1% | Moved more |
| 2024-07-18 | ±8.5% | +2.7% | -1.5% | Moved less |
| 2024-04-18 | ±8.5% | -7.0% | -9.1% | Moved more |
| 2024-01-23 | ±8.0% | +9.3% | +10.7% | Moved more |
"Straddle priced" is the at-the-money straddle before the report, as a share of the stock price. It also carries the stock's ordinary movement until that straddle expires, so it usually reads a little higher than the expected move at the top of the page, which covers the report alone. The move by the close is the full session after the report; the move at the open is the overnight gap.
Price the NFLX straddle on today's chain, with the edge score and twelve quarters of straddle P&L.
Open the earnings straddleNFLX earnings per share: estimates vs results
NFLX beat the consensus EPS estimate in 10 of the last 12 reports and missed in 2. The estimate for the Jan 19 report is $0.73 a share.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | $0.82 | $0.87 | +6.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.8% |
| 2026-04-16 | $0.76 | $1.23 | +61.2% |
| 2026-01-20 | $0.55 | $0.56 | +1.4% |
NFLX full EPS history
Terminal8 more quarters of NFLX EPS and revenue against estimates are in the Terminal's Earnings History module.
How to read the NFLX expected move
The expected move is the size of move, up or down, that options prices imply for the report. It is not a forecast of direction. A stock lands inside its expected move a little more often than not, so a move past it is common, not a surprise.
Before each report, the straddle sets the price of the move. When the stock moves less than that, straddle buyers lose and sellers keep the premium, helped by the drop in implied volatility after the report (IV crush). When it moves more, buyers win. The table above shows how often NFLX moved more than its straddle priced.
To size a trade around the number, try the expected move calculator, or read the earnings trading guide.
NFLX straddle on the live chain
TerminalThe Terminal prices the NFLX earnings straddle on the live chain, with its breakevens, the edge score and the IV crush to expect after the report.
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The move is priced.
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The Terminal shows the NFLX straddle, its breakevens and twelve quarters of earnings P&L on the live chain. Try it on AAPL without an account.
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