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Earnings · Technology · Wed Nov 4, 2026
RUN earnings expected move
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.6% (±$0.77) when Sunrun Inc. reports on Wed Nov 4, 2026 after the close, so roughly $6.51 to $8.05. The Nov 6 straddle prices ±16.4% ($1.20), which also covers ordinary movement until it expires.
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RUN expected move
Refreshed every 15 minAs of 2026-10-27, options price a move of ±10.6% for RUN's report on Wed Nov 4, 2026 after the close, 8 days away. The at-the-money straddle on the Nov 6 expiry costs $1.20, or ±16.4% of the stock (priced 2026-10-26). That is the figure most sites quote as the expected move; it is larger because it also carries the stock's ordinary movement until that expiry. Over its last 12 reports, RUN moved 15.3% on average by the next close.
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RUN moves after the last 12 reports
Before each report, the at-the-money straddle priced a move. The bars show how far RUN actually moved over the next session; the line on each bar is what options priced. The stock moved more than priced in 5 of 12 reports.
| Report | Straddle priced | Move at the open | Move by the close | Versus priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | ±13.9% | -13.7% | -10.6% | Moved less |
| 2026-05-06 | ±14.9% | +12.5% | +7.6% | Moved less |
| 2026-02-26 | ±11.7% | -9.0% | -35.1% | Moved more |
| 2025-11-06 | ±11.8% | -17.1% | -16.1% | Moved more |
| 2025-08-06 | ±12.7% | +23.5% | +32.3% | Moved more |
| 2025-05-07 | ±13.2% | +14.2% | +15.0% | Moved more |
| 2025-02-27 | ±13.4% | +0.0% | -8.3% | Moved less |
| 2024-11-07 | ±14.7% | -0.7% | -11.8% | Moved less |
| 2024-08-06 | ±13.4% | +12.1% | +11.0% | Moved less |
| 2024-05-08 | ±16.1% | +4.2% | +7.8% | Moved less |
| 2024-02-21 | ±14.7% | -4.6% | -18.0% | Moved more |
| 2023-11-01 | ±14.7% | -3.1% | +10.1% | Moved less |
"Straddle priced" is the at-the-money straddle before the report, as a share of the stock price. It also carries the stock's ordinary movement until that straddle expires, so it usually reads a little higher than the expected move at the top of the page, which covers the report alone. It is the same measure as the ±16.4% straddle above. The move by the close is the full session after the report; the move at the open is the overnight gap.
Price the RUN straddle on today's chain, with the edge score and twelve quarters of straddle P&L.
Open the earnings straddleRUN earnings per share: estimates vs results
RUN beat the consensus EPS estimate in 10 of the last 12 reports and missed in 2. The estimate for the Nov 4 report is $0.20 a share.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.23 | $0.42 | +86.3% |
| 2026-05-06 | $-0.05 | $0.62 | +1340.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | $-0.08 | $0.38 | +575.0% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.01 | $0.06 | +500.0% |
RUN full EPS history
Terminal8 more quarters of RUN EPS and revenue against estimates are in the Terminal's Earnings History module.
How to read the RUN expected move
The expected move is the size of move, up or down, that options prices imply for the report. It is not a forecast of direction. A stock lands inside its expected move a little more often than not, so a move past it is common, not a surprise.
Before each report, the straddle sets the price of the move. When the stock moves less than that, straddle buyers lose and sellers keep the premium, helped by the drop in implied volatility after the report (IV crush). When it moves more, buyers win. The table above shows how often RUN moved more than its straddle priced.
To size a trade around the number, try the expected move calculator, or read the earnings trading guide.
RUN straddle on the live chain
TerminalThe Terminal prices the RUN earnings straddle on the live chain, with its breakevens, the edge score and the IV crush to expect after the report.
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