HV Regime

Current state of realized volatility: expanding, contracting, or normal

What is HV Regime?

HV Regime A volatility regime describes the current state of realized volatility: expanding (short-term HV rising above long-term), contracting (short-term HV falling below long-term), or normal. Determined by comparing short-window HV (e.g. 10-day) to long-window HV (e.g. 60-day). When the ratio exceeds 1.3x, vol is expanding; below 0.7x, it's contracting.

Complete Definition

A volatility regime describes the current state of realized volatility: expanding (short-term HV rising above long-term), contracting (short-term HV falling below long-term), or normal. Determined by comparing short-window HV (e.g. 10-day) to long-window HV (e.g. 60-day). When the ratio exceeds 1.3x, vol is expanding; below 0.7x, it's contracting.

Example

TSLA's 10-day HV is 45% and 60-day HV is 30%, giving a ratio of 1.5x — an expanding regime. This suggests recent moves have been unusually large and may signal increased risk or opportunity.