The vol snapshot
The VIX closed Friday at 14.25, down 0.65 on the week and 6.4 points below the July 29 spike close of 20.66. SPY one month implied vol sits at 12.3, the 8th percentile of the past year, and the options market prices a move of about 1% through this Friday. Rates are the part of the picture that refuses to settle. The 10 year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.70%, its high for the month, and the MOVE index, which does for Treasury options roughly what the VIX does for stocks, sits near 69.6. That works out to about 4.4 basis points of daily swing priced into yields.
Movers
SPY one month IV is 12.3 with an IV rank of 7.8. Index option premium is about as cheap as it has been all year.
CSCO moved 8.4% on Thursday against a 6.8% implied. One month IV is 29.9 after the print, still the 69th percentile of its past year.
TGT one month IV is 33.4, the top of its one month range going into Wednesday's report. The implied move is 6.1% against an 8.4% average over its last twelve reports.
BABA one month IV is 39.0 into Thursday's report, the 19th percentile of its past year.
The week ahead
25 names with listed options report in the next seven days, and almost everything that matters is retail. Home Depot opens Tuesday morning, Lowe's, Target and TJX follow Wednesday, and Walmart, Alibaba and Deere close it out Thursday. They report into a soft tape, since July retail sales fell 0.6% from June, the largest monthly drop since May 2025. The macro calendar adds housing starts Tuesday, the FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon, and flash PMIs Friday.
| Ticker | Reports | Implied move | Realized avg (12q) | Premium (IV÷real.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | Tue Aug 18 (BMO) | ±3.6% | 2.0% | 1.79 |
| BIDU | Tue Aug 18 (BMO) | ±5.9% | 4.1% | 1.45 |
| LOW | Wed Aug 19 (BMO) | ±4.4% | 2.6% | 1.69 |
| TGT | Wed Aug 19 (BMO) | ±6.1% | 8.4% | 0.73 |
| TJX | Wed Aug 19 (BMO) | ±3.5% | 2.7% | 1.31 |
| ADI | Wed Aug 19 (BMO) | ±5.3% | 4.3% | 1.23 |
| WMT | Thu Aug 20 (BMO) | ±4.4% | 4.7% | 0.94 |
| BABA | Thu Aug 20 (BMO) | ±5.9% | 6.2% | 0.95 |
| DE | Thu Aug 20 (BMO) | ±4.4% | 5.7% | 0.77 |
Implied move is what options price for the report itself. Realized average is the average absolute move across the last twelve reports, measured close to close, using the next session close for reports after the bell and the same day close for premarket reports.
The home improvement pair carries the richest pricing in the table, with HD at 1.79 times its twelve report average and LOW at 1.69 times, while TGT is priced at 0.73 times its own history. One caveat on HD, its twelve report average is only 2.0%, so even a modest 3.6% implied screens rich against a docile history.
Last week's table mostly broke one way. Six of the nine names moved more than options implied. SE gained 14.6% against a 9.7% implied, SMCI 19.0% against 12.3%, CRWV 19.3% against 12.5%, CAVA 14.2% against 10.9%, CSCO fell 8.4% against 6.8%, and JD fell 7.3% against 5.1%. Only MNDY, RKLB and AMAT stayed inside their pricing. An index at the 8th percentile of its year while two thirds of reporters beat their straddles tells you where the action has gone.
What the VIX actually is
The VIX is a price. It is what SPX options currently charge for exposure to S&P 500 movement over the next 30 days, quoted as an annualized percentage. Friday it closed at 14.25 while SPY one month at the money IV sat at 12.3, and that gap is normal, because the VIX calculation weights downside strikes and runs above at the money IV whenever puts carry a premium. To read a single stock against it, divide the stock's one month IV by SPY's. TGT at 33.4 is 2.7 times SPY vol, which is the options market expecting Target to move nearly three times as much as the index over the next month, with Wednesday's report doing part of the lifting.
One terminal tip
The terminal lets you save your own layout. One subscriber runs a three module view, vol snapshot, IV ratio and calendar spreads, and ignores everything else. Build yours once, save it, and it loads that way every session. If you want to try it, the free 7 day trial is here.
See you next week.
Ryan
Educational content, not investment advice.