What is the win rate of a bull put spread?

In the illustrative 60-cycle single-name backtest, a 25-delta short strike with a 50% profit-close produces roughly a 72% win rate. The figure is sensitive to entry timing: selling only when IV rank is above 40 lifts both the win rate and the average credit, while always-on entries collect thinner premium and give back more in low-IV cycles.

Are bull put spreads better on single stocks or on SPY?

Single names pay richer credit because their implied volatility is higher, but they also gap harder on news, so the average loser is larger. SPY and other index spreads are smoother and safer but the premium is thinner. The illustrative results show single names produce higher net per cycle when entries are IV-rank-timed, and worse results when they are not. Many traders run both, weighting toward the index in calm regimes.

What delta should I sell a bull put spread at?

In the illustrative backtest, 25-delta short strikes gave the best expectancy on single names — richer credit than 16-delta without the steep tail of 30-plus delta. Below 16-delta the credit is too thin to survive the occasional gap; above 30-delta the win rate falls under 60% and losers dominate.

Does timing bull put spreads by IV rank actually help?

In the illustrative test it was the single biggest lever after the exit rule. Restricting entries to IV rank above 40 raised the average credit by roughly 40% and improved net per cycle from a small positive to a clearly positive number, because you are paid more to take the same directional risk. Selling premium into low IV is the most common way single-name credit spreads bleed out.

How is a bull put spread different from a credit spread?

A bull put spread is a credit spread — specifically the bullish, put-side version (sell a put, buy a lower-strike put as the wing). The broader credit spread backtest on this site focuses on SPY and also covers the bearish call-side. This page isolates the bull put spread on individual high-IV stocks, where premium and tail risk are both larger.

Strategy Deep-Dive

Bull Put Spread Backtest: 60 Cycles on High-IV Single Names

Put credit spreads sold on a rotating basket of liquid, high-IV stocks — not the index. Win rate by delta, IV-rank-timed entries vs always-on, and why single-name premium cuts both ways.

Simulated data for display. Illustrative narrative — not a verified live backtest. Build real backtests on the strategy builder.

All strategy backtests →

Cycles

single names, 30-DTE

Win Rate

72%

25-delta + 50% close

Net per Cycle

+$48

IV-rank-timed entries

Max Drawdown

-18%

single-name gap risk

The Test Setup

Universe: a rotating basket of liquid, high-IV single names (large-cap tech, semis, and a few momentum stocks). One position at a time, rotated to whichever qualifying name had the highest IV rank that week.

Structure: bull put spread — sell a put, buy a lower-strike put as the wing. 5-point wings on stocks priced like the index; scaled to ~3% of spot on higher-priced names.

Entry: 30 DTE, short strike at 25 delta. The IV-rank-timed variant only enters when IV rank > 40; the always-on variant enters every cycle regardless.

Exit rules tested: (1) hold to expiration; (2) close at 50% max profit; (3) close at 50% + 200% stop-loss.

Period: January 2020 – December 2024, sampled to 60 cycles.

Win Rate by Short-Strike Delta

Delta	Win Rate	Avg Credit	Avg Winner	Avg Loser	Net / Cycle
16	82%	$110	+$55	-$420	+$22
25 ★	72%	$185	+$93	-$365	+$48
30	64%	$235	+$118	-$320	+$28
40	54%	$300	+$150	-$260	-$12

On single names the sweet spot sits a touch richer than on the index: 25-delta collects meaningfully more credit than 16-delta while keeping the win rate above 70%. Push past 30-delta and the larger gaps single stocks produce overwhelm the extra premium.

IV-Rank-Timed Entries vs Always-On

Entry Rule	Avg Credit	Win Rate	Net / Cycle	60-Cycle Net
Always-on (every cycle)	$130	69%	+$14	+$840
IV rank > 40 only	$185	72%	+$48	+$2,880

Same structure, same delta — only the entry filter changes. Demanding IV rank above 40 pays roughly 40% more credit for the same directional risk, and that extra premium is what separates a marginal edge from a real one. Check IV rank before every entry on the IV rank lookup.

Exit Rules: Same Lesson as the Index

Exit Rule	Win Rate	Net / Cycle	Max Drawdown
Hold to expiration	60%	+$11	-31%
Close at 50% max	72%	+$48	-18%
50% max + 200% stop	69%	+$51	-12%

As with the index version, closing at 50% of max profit does most of the work; the 200% stop-loss matters more here because single-name gaps are larger and less forgiving than the index.

Anatomy of the Worst Cycle

A high-flying semiconductor name was sold at a 25-delta bull put spread for $2.10 credit into elevated IV. A guidance miss gapped the stock down 14% overnight, straight through the short strike. Held to expiration the spread realized near max loss of -$290. The 200% stop-loss closed it the next morning at -$200, saving roughly $90 per contract.

This is the single-name tax: the credit is richer, but one bad earnings or guidance gap can erase several winning cycles. It is the entire reason the stop-loss and IV-rank filter exist.

Five Takeaways

Sell at 25-delta on single names. Richer than the index's 16-delta sweet spot, because single-name premium rewards a little more risk — but stop at 30.
Time entries by IV rank. Only sell when IV rank is above 40. It roughly doubled net per cycle in the illustrative test.
Close at 50% max profit. The same single biggest lever as on the index. Never hold a single-name spread to expiration for the last few dollars.
Run a hard stop-loss. Single-name gaps are larger than index moves; a 200% stop cut max drawdown by a third.
Avoid earnings inside the cycle. A binary event turns a 72% strategy into a coin flip. Roll past or skip the name entirely.

Find the right name, then price the spread

Screen for high IV rank, then build the bull put spread and check max loss, credit, and breakeven on the calculator.

Bull Put Spread Guide Credit Spread Calculator