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Market Analysis

S&P 500 Slips 0.38% on a Hot Jobs Report: Sep 4

Payrolls nearly tripled the forecast, the S&P 500 slipped 0.38% against a 55 point priced move and the VIX ticked up to 14.5. A one minute recap.

1:08 Published YouTube

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On this page
  1. In writing
  2. The close
  3. A year of it on the Terminal
  4. What moved it
  5. The week ahead
  6. The takeaway
  7. Up next

What this one covers

  • The S&P 500 slipped 0.38% while the Nasdaq edged slightly higher
  • Options had priced a typical day at about 55 points and the S&P moved 29, so about half
  • Payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly three times the forecast of 55,000, and rate hike odds rose
  • Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, GameStop and Casey's report Tuesday and August inflation data lands Friday
  • S&P options are priced calmer than 94% of the past year, so protection is cheap to buy but there is little premium to sell

The same thing, in writing

The close

Today in Vol for September 4. The S&P 500 slipped 0.38% while the Nasdaq edged slightly higher. Options had priced a typical day at about 55 points. The S&P moved 29, so about half of that. The VIX ticked up to 14.5.

A year of it on the Terminal

The chart shows a year of S&P 500 premium. Green means options expected more movement than they got. Red means they expected less. Friday was a green day, because the index moved less than options had paid for.

What moved it

Payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly three times the forecast of 55,000, and rate hike odds rose. Chips led. Consumer and media names fell.

The week ahead

Markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. Tuesday brings GameStop and Casey's earnings, and August inflation data lands on Friday.

The takeaway

S&P options are still priced calmer than 94% of the past year. Protection is cheap to buy, but there is little premium to sell. That is today in Vol.

Topics

  • today in vol
  • s&p 500
  • vix
  • jobs report
  • expected move
  • market recap

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